Coffee price movements over time beyond the imagination of many people. Therefore, to avoid risks, gardeners should not participate in speculation, buy and wait for the next price increase but with the existing amount of goods, divided into batches to sell according to financial needs.
Increase “crazy”
On February 11, coffee in the Central Highlands area cost an average of 131,000 VND/kg, an increase of 2,000 VND/kg compared to the previous day. Meanwhile, the price of Robusta coffee on the London trading floor (UK) ranges from 5,573 to 5,696 USD/ton, equivalent to 140,000 to 144,000 VND/kg, up from 110 to 133 USD/ton compared to the previous day. More notably, the price of Arabica coffee on New York (USA) has surprised greatly when in just one trading session soared US $ 540 to $ 9,460/ton for the term delivered in March 2025.
Mr. Phan Minh Thong, Chairman of the Board of Directors of Phuc Sinh Joint Stock Company, said that coffee prices increased “crazy”, in addition to imagination and the upcoming rising room increased. With such high coffee prices, businesses (DN) are forced to buy high, sell high at market prices rather than close prices early.
Coffee market expert Nguyen Quang Binh commented that the price of Arabica coffee increased as “tsunami”. The main reason comes from fear of failing crops in the next crop and the fact that financial investors are pouring money here because of the high profitability.
According to a representative of a coffee exporting enterprise, Brazil is running out of Arabica coffee due to the end of the season, farmers sell dripping while the weather is harsh, worried about the incident is still scarce.
The price of Arabica coffee sets a new record, making the price of Robusta coffee more supported at a high level because the price gap between the two main types of coffee in the world is still very far away. The same delivery term in March 3-2025, the price of Robusta coffee is lower than Arabica up to 3,780 USD/ton, which is only 60% of the price while the previous crop, sometimes Robusta coffee surpassed Arabica.
Ms. Nguyen Thi Chien in Dak Ha (Kon Tum province) said that after harvesting, the family only sold 1 ton of coffee for 115,000 VND/kg, and about 10 tons of coffee still put in the warehouse even though many traders. Call to buy. “In the previous case, the family sold coffee at 73,000 VND/kg, thought to win the price but after the pity because of the cheap sale so this year is waiting. Currently, the family does not need money ” – Ms. Chien expressed.
Also according to Ms. Chien, the price of coffee up and down is too erratic, making the garden house also nervous, it is unclear when the best price to sell.
Meanwhile, in coffee exports, from October 2024 to January 2025, always decreased in number over the same period last year. This is a factor that helps the coffee price stand firm at a high level, leading to a record coffee export value. The Vietnam Coffee – Cocoa Association (Vicofa) said that coffee exported in January reached 137,568 tons, turnover of 694.93 million USD, down 38.2% over the same period last year in production but increased by 8 , 8% in value.
An industry expert said in previous years, this period usually Vietnam exports about 200,000 tons of coffee per month. This also means that in the coming time, Vietnam still has a lot of goods to market. If the amount of sale is massively, the price can be pulled down.
Coffee drying at Café Vietnam Academy VCA. Photo: An Na
Time to sell?
Mr. Nguyen Ngoc Luan, Director of Global Trade Co., Ltd. (Meet More Coffee Brand), commented that Vietnamese farmers have learned from last year, so they did not rush to sell when the price has just increased. “The current data shows that the trend is still good for coffee prices. In addition to the worry of crop failure, the new information is the possibility of the US tax tax on South America. At that time, Brazil, Colombia, Peru coffee. .. will be even more expensive, creating advantages for Vietnamese coffee ” – Mr. Luan explained.
Mr. Luan added that the current price of coffee is very beneficial for farmers and most importantly, many farmers still have goods to sell. “From now until June 2025, the price of coffee is still good and the issue of” redundant “has not been worried,” Luan forecasted.
From the perspective of growing and coffee business, Mr. Nguyen Huu Long, Director of VCA Vietnam Café Academy Joint Stock Company (Gia Lai province), said that this year’s drought is more harsh than last year, so the next case continues to continue Worrying crop. “The price of domestic coffee is currently lower than the London floor price to nearly 15,000 VND/kg, while the previous one was equivalent to or only about 5,000 VND/kg lower. Slog? ” – Mr. Long asked.
Regarding when to sell coffee when, Mr. Long said that this time it was difficult to give advice to farmers. “But if I have a few tons of coffee, I will not sell out immediately but will be divided into batches, sold gradually before July 2025” – Mr. Long hypothesized.
Meanwhile, Mr. Trinh Duc Minh, Chairman of Buon Ma Thuot Coffee Association (Dak Lak), recommended that farmers should not have a speculative thought because they are very risky. “We have to frankly acknowledge the price of coffee is very good, 2-3 times higher than before. Taking care of the new crop ” – Mr. Minh said.
According to the business world, although coffee prices are now very high, the possibility of farmers expanding the cultivation area is almost no because there is no land. It is only possible to keep the output by taking care of the garden and rejuvenating when the garden reaches the age. Therefore, the coffee industry has not worried about the surplus crisis.
The worry of witty coffee
Increased raw material coffee has facilitated witty coffee production facilities, mainly from corn, soybeans, flavors or waste coffee. At the end of January, the authorities of Gia Lai province discovered three facilities in Pleiku City are producing and trading “Uyen” coffee powder. Here, the subjects are soaked, marinated, mixed with additives, chemicals of unknown origin into coffee to bring to the consumption market. Through examination and examination, the authorities have determined that 785 kg of coffee is fake.
Not only in Vietnam, but the Brazilian Coffee Roasting Association (ABIC) has just spoken about a number of companies that sell fake coffee products on the domestic market. Earlier, Abic has discovered products such as coffee powder but actually does not contain coffee bean raw materials that ingredients such as shells, coffee leaves, other nuts and coffee flavoring.
