Source: Vietnambiz.vn
In the afternoon meeting 10/2 with investors, leaders of Vietnam Dairy Joint Stock Company (Vinamilk – Code: VNM) had updates related to projects and operations of the No. 1 big dairy industry.
Regarding the dairy project in Hung Yen, the progress is slowed down compared to the original due to many problems of land. If nothing changes, in the second quarter of 2025, the company will start starting to build the factory.
In the North, Vinamilk currently has a factory in Bac Ninh and a factory in Lam Son, Thanh Hoa. With the trend of consumption and large market size in the North, the factory itself in Bac Ninh is running all the capacity.
Therefore, the establishment of a factory in Hung Yen plus the construction time is not short (usually from 18 – 24 months) will help Vinamilk added to the plan for 2-3 years to come into operation.
Answering questions about whether construction of Hung Yen factory has made Vinamilk surplus capacity or not in the context of saturated dairy industry, the representative of the business said that during the construction process, Vinamilk had investment divergence to ensure optimization of construction investment, imported and imported machinery and equipment to ensure suitable needs and cost optimization.
Therefore, there will be no redundancy or Vinamilk must sell discounts to run at full capacity.
The dairy factory project in Hung Yen is cooperated by Vinamilk with Vilico with a total estimated investment of 4,600 billion, on an area of nearly 25 hectares, the total design capacity is estimated at about 400 million liters/year is expected in 2 stages.
The introduction of Hung Yen factory mainly serves future consumption needs. As for the Mot Chau Milk Paradise Project – this is a project in the plan 2 years ago, but also due to some land procedures, Vinamilk is currently in the completion stage to start construction.
This project includes both parts, partly starting to modernize the system of machinery and equipment, and at the same time expand the consumption trend for some specific product lines produced by Moc Chau.
Regarding the investment capital for projects, Vinamilk is completely autonomous with the own capital.
Hung Yen project has prepared partly and depending on the investment divergence combined with Moc Chau cash flow, Vilico contributes, Vinamilk can consider using part of the capital from the outside to optimize costs.
Farms in Laos, coverage and piano investment level have not reached the capacity level as designed because the investment must be based on the demand for product consumption and developing products in the future.
In 2024, the situation of purchasing and consumption of milk has some time to slow down, so the investment and lifting of the piano in Laos is still considered.
Regarding the capacity of Vinamilk’s factories, there are times when exploiting is over 90% of the capacity, even some of the product lines are exploited above such as drinking milk yeast, condensed milk. In contrast, there are some product lines (such as nutritious milk) with lower exploitation capacity.
With Vinabeef project, Vinamilk has been put into operation in December 2024, initially everything is still stable, but Vinamilk continues to monitor the trend and market output.
In 2025, Vinamilk will expand the distribution channel as well as increase sales. In the first years of a new project will have certain limitations, Vinamilk will focus on product consumption.
Assessing the 2025 market prospect, Vinamilk’s representative said that through the statistics of the FMCGS industry, the dairy market is recovering in a quarter, ie 2024 dairy market and dairy products still grow negative but the decline has slowed down compared to 2023. (2024 decreased by 0.3% and 2023 decreased by 1%).
If looking at the quarter, the first quarter of 2.8%, the second quarter of 1%, the third quarter increased by 1.6% and the fourth quarter increased by 1.6%, proving that the market was gradually improving.
Vinamilk’s leadership forecasts the relatively optimistic dairy market scenery for 2025 with policies to encourage the Government’s economic development, contributing to increasing consumer psychology.
“Particularly for Vinamilk, in the past two years, businesses have improved a lot in the distribution system, improving product quality, changing packaging, branding brands, changing communication messages and especially launching many new products in 2024. These will be growth motivation for 2025 and next years,” Vinamilk representative acknowledged.
Prepared materials until the end of June
Regarding the price of raw materials tends to increase again, the source of powdered milk is concentrated mainly in three major centers, Australia, Australia and Newzeland.
The evolution of skimmed milk powder. (Source: Global Dairy Trade).
At the end of 2023 and the beginning of 2024, the price of raw materials had downward trends. However, starting in the third quarter and the fourth quarter of 2024, the price tends to increase, stemming from the influence of the weather in Australia, Newzeland causes the farming price of farmers in this area to increase. Combining additional demand after the pandemic, especially in China – a place with a large consumption also causes rising material prices in the world.
In addition, with the US market, inflation is high for many years plus natural disasters have affected the supply.
The price of whole milk powder (Source: Global Dairy Trade).
In 2025, like the previous stages, Vinamilk usually prepared at least 3 months in advance for about 6 months or more.
Up to now, the basic raw materials, except for fresh milk – Vinamilk is occupying a large market share and has a large source in the country, it is not affected by the price, the other ingredients have been prepared until the end of June. Even some materials have been prepared until July and August.
In general, the price of raw materials has increased compared to the same period 2024, so Vinamilk has prepared to adjust the price in suitable products in the coming time depending on the level of fluctuations and impact on general profits.
In 2024, Vinamilk still holds the market leader with a quite far away distance, about 30 % points compared to adjacent competitors. Some industries occupy the number 1 market share such as condensed milk, feeding yogurt, yogurt to drink raw yeast, water milk, …
