The last 15th week of coffee transactions had an impressive increase, especially for Robusta coffee.
The results of the Arabica market closed in July increased by 12 cents, located at 353.60 cents/pound and Robusta coffee and the monthly closed month increased by $ 153, at $ 5049/ton.
The two most severe reasons that have pushed the price of coffee increased as to regain what was lost at the beginning of the week, after the Trump administration announced that it was only 10% of import tax on the US for 75 countries that did not take retaliation, plus the decline of the dollar had activated the slamming market that was short -sold.
It must be said that the decline of the dollar index to the lowest level in the past 3 years has been the main reason for closing the previous short -term contract. In addition, the worries of supply still have not ended the market threat, when Cecafe reported on Wednesday that Brazil’s March coffee exports fell by 26% over the same period last year to 2.95 million bags.
Robusta coffee is also increasing due to signs of tighter supply after the amount of coffee inventory of this coffee is reduced by ICE to the lowest level in 6 weeks in Friday of 4,253 lots.
Last Wednesday, Arabica coffee has dropped to the lowest level in the past 3 months due to concerns about the global trade war, which has reduced the price of most items, including coffee. In addition, there is concern that the demand for coffee will decrease when the rising tariffs affect consumers in the United States.
The Vietnam Coffee and Cocoa Association reduced Vietnam’s coffee production in 2024/25 to 26.5 million bags compared to the estimated announced in December of 28 million bags – the announcement was released on March 12. Finally, the General Department of Vietnam Customs also reported on Friday that Vietnam’s coffee exports in January to March 2025 decreased by the same period to 495 tons. This is a significant reduction in Vietnam’s key export month after the collection 24/25.
Trade data of the Indonesian government from Sumatra, the leading coffee producing island in Indonesia, reported that the island’s Robusta coffee export in February was 441,836 bags or 793% higher than the same period last year. It is thought that the favorable weather conditions along with the rising Robusta price may have contributed to increasing exports by year. This contributes to the export of Robusta coffee cumulative of the island in the first eleven months of the current coffee crop 2024/2025 higher than 66.97% over the same period last year, with a total of 3,336,376 bags. The coffee crop from April 2024 to March 2025 is gradually going at the end of the country with 85% of the Robusta coffee and the rest is Arabica coffee that is expected to reach a total of about 10.90 million bags.
The amount of Arabica coffee has been stored on the New York exchange is expected to increase 7,371 bags on Thursday last week, reaching 785,559 bags.
The contract price difference in July 2025 between London and New York markets has reached 124.10 cents/pound. This figure is quite large on the value of Arabica that decreases slightly for Robusta coffee. Traditionally, the difference between the two markets is only in about 90 cents, the market tends to adjust itself when traveling away from this difference, remember in the middle of last year this difference is only in the range of 31-35 cents when the price of Robusta coffee is difficult to buy on the market.
At the present level, we have the right to hope to adjust, or the price of Arabica will decrease, or the Robusta price will be raised, in which the second possibility seems more likely to happen.
Summarizing the week, the price of Arabica coffee is at 353.60 cents, decreasing compared to the 363.30 cent closing landmark of last week and decreasing more than the weekly opened level. Arabica’s technical market has not improved much and still in the weak frame, this market needs to beyond the 362.50 cent milestone to assert itself.
The price of Robusta coffee has had a signal back from the lowest level since mid -January, especially when this market has occupied a psychological milestone of $ 5,000/ton, but under the influence of the fluctuations of many economic, political, monetary causes and especially tariff issues in the past time, Robusta market engineering needs to increase and keep the milestone over the last $ 310/ton.
Kinh Vu (Giacaphe.com)
