In the early morning of October 5 (Vietnam time), the price of coffee futures delivered in November 2024 on the London – UK exchange closed increased by 146 USD/ton, to 5,067 USD/ton.
This was a highly volatile trading session when coffee prices sometimes decreased to 45 USD/ton and peaked at 174 USD/ton.
In other terms, Robusta coffee prices also increased by 110 – 139 USD/ton, despite previous negative forecasts.
Specifically, data from the World Coffee Organization (ICO) shows that Brazil’s coffee exports as well as the weather situation have returned to favorable conditions.
On October 2, the European Commission (EU) announced to postpone the implementation of the anti-deforestation law (EUDR) for another year, which will apply on December 31, 2025, making it unnecessary for coffee importers to speed up. imported for reserve, in case trade is interrupted due to EUDR. In fact, when the EUDR was applied, there was a volume of coffee that did not meet regulations, not only due to goods related to deforestation but also due to procedural and documentation issues.
Regarding the crop season in Vietnam, surveys show good yields due to farmers focusing on care, minimizing the impact of drought at the beginning of the year.
Mr. Phan Minh Thong, General Director of Phuc Sinh Joint Stock Company – an enterprise in the top 4 coffee exporters, said that coffee prices currently depend too much on speculators so they are extremely unpredictable.
“We have had an unprecedented coffee season in history when for the past 5 months, we have been almost “sitting idle” because there was no goods to trade. Meanwhile, from 2022 onwards, until In September and October – the end of the old crop and the beginning of the new crop, each month the company can still export up to 20 containers of coffee” – Mr. Thong cited.
Mr. Thong said that with current high coffee prices, businesses must be very cautious according to the principle of buying high and selling high. It is forecasted that in the next 5 years, coffee prices will remain high, from 4,000 USD/ton.