Coffee export turnover in 8 months is nearly equal to last year

According to Vietnambiz.vn

Turnover export almost equal to last year

Figures published by the General Department of Customs show that exports coffee of Vietnam in August reached 76,214 tons, worth 402.2 million USD, a decrease of 9.9% in volume but a sharp increase of 55.8% in value compared to the same period in 2023.

In the first 8 months of the year, Vietnam exported nearly 1.1 million tons of coffee, earning 4 billion USD. Although export volume decreased by 12.1%, export value still increased by 35.6% over the same period.

With this result, coffee export turnover after 8 months has nearly equaled the record level of 4.2 billion USD achieved last year.

The above results are due to the continuous increase in coffee prices in recent times. In August alone, Vietnam’s average export coffee price set a new record of 5,278 USD/ton, up 6.6% over the previous month and up 73% ($2,226/ton) compared to the previous month. with the same period last year.

On average in the first 8 months of the year, coffee export prices recorded an increase of 54.3%, to an average of 3,800 USD/ton.

In the context of coffee prices remaining high and the consumer market having many advantages, export of the product is expected to continue to surge in the near future and potentially bring in 5.5 – 6 billion USD. this year, the highest level in history.

In the first 8 months of the year, the European Union (EU) continued to be the largest customer of Vietnam’s coffee industry. This market accounts for 39% of volume and 38% of the total value of our country’s coffee exports, with a volume of 412,179 tons, worth over 1.53 billion USD, a decrease of 9.4% in volume and an increase of 43%. .9% in value compared to the same period in 2023.

Of which, the amount of coffee exported to Germany decreased by 10.9%; Italy decreased by 13%; while Spain and the Netherlands increased sharply by 17% and 13.5%…

In addition to the EU, the amount of coffee exported to some other large markets such as Japan, the US, Russia… also decreased compared to the same period in 2023 due to limited supply.

This decrease was offset by an increase in potential markets in Asia such as: Indonesia increased by 46%; Philippines increased by 63.5%; China increased by 30.4%; Thailand increased by 63.6%; Malaysia increased by 64%…

Demand from many markets, especially the EU, is still very large because roasters are stepping up import before the EU Deforestation Regulation (EUDR) comes into effect early next year.

However, Vietnam’s 2023-2024 crop supply is not much left. At the end of the 11 months of the 2023-2024 crop year (October 2023 to August 2024), Vietnam has exported more than 1.4 million tons of coffee of all kinds, down 12.3% compared to the same period of the previous crop year and accounting for about 96% of the total output of about 1.47 million tons of the current crop year.

If not counting the inventory carried over from the previous crop year, Vietnam only has about 60,000 tons of coffee left to export in the last month of the 2023-2024 crop year.

Coffee prices are unlikely to decrease in the coming crop

Depleted inventories along with concerns about a smaller crop in the 2024-2025 crop year are one of the main reasons why domestic coffee prices have increased again recently.

As of September 16, the price of green robusta coffee in key localities in the Central Highlands fluctuated between 123,500 – 124,000 VND/kg, the highest level since the end of July and an increase of 5.6% compared to a year ago. last month.

On the world market, the price of robusta coffee delivered in November on the London floor has increased to a new record of 5,267 USD/ton, a sharp increase of 17% compared to the previous month.

On the New York trading floor, the price of Arabica coffee for December delivery also increased by 9.5%, to 259.5 US cents/pound.

According to forecasts of the Import-Export Department (Ministry of Industry and Trade), coffee prices will continue to remain high next month due to reduced supply and increased demand. Coffee output in the 2024-2025 crop year in Vietnam is expected to decrease sharply, to its lowest level in 13 years.

Meanwhile, the mainstream coffee consumer market in the Northern Hemisphere is gradually returning after the summer break, which will contribute to promoting some physical coffee trading activities in the coming months before the season’s coffee roasting period. East in Europe and America.

Sharing with us about the upcoming harvest, Mr. Le Duc Huy, General Director of Simexco DakLak – one of the enterprises in the Top 8 coffee export market shares, said that output will definitely decrease due to adverse weather and the planted area is limited.

At the same time, inventory from the 2023-2024 crop that was transferred to the next crop is no longer available. Therefore, supply will continue to be limited. “In the current case, the shortage of goods has occurred since May,” Mr. Huy said.

In addition, frost in Brazil, the world’s largest coffee exporter, is also having a major impact on this country’s coffee output. Therefore, in the new crop, roasters will be forced to buy Vietnamese robusta. This will lead to a shortage of goods this year even earlier, expected from March. If it is purely a matter of supply and demand, coffee prices will hardly decrease in the new crop year.

General Director of Simexco DakLak also said that speculation and inflated coffee prices next year will be more limited next year due to high anchor prices.

“Last year, prices had not yet peaked, so speculation was widespread. However, this year, coffee prices are at a high level, so it is unlikely that this situation will reoccur,” Mr. Huy said.

According to Mr. Trinh Duc Minh, Chairman of the Buon Ma Thuot Coffee Association, coffee output in the next crop year may continue to decrease by about 15% compared to the current crop year.

“Next year’s output will definitely decrease. A decrease of about 15% is forecast. The reason is that part of the coffee area is shrinking. In addition, during the recent dry season the drought was quite severe. Normally, May and June are the period when coffee berries grow rapidly, but this year due to lack of water, the beans will be smaller,” he analyzed.