On the morning of October 3, the coffee business world was shocked to see the price of Robusta coffee for November delivery closing the trading session on ICE Futures Europe (London, England) falling to only 5,111 USD/ton, lower than the matching price. The previous day it was up to 334 USD/ton (down about 8,150 VND/kg), equivalent to 6.13%. Compared to the record peak on September 27, the price of Robusta coffee in this term has lost up to 416 US/ton.
At the monthly delivery term of January 2025, the price of Robusta coffee also decreased to 317 USD/ton, to 4,862 USD/ton; The term for delivery in March 2025 is down to 4,651 USD/ton, down 294 USD/ton and the term for delivery in May 2025 is down to 4,511 USD/ton, down 266 USD/ton.
Before that, Robusta coffee prices on October 2 fluctuated wildly, at one point rising to 5,466 USD/ton, up 21 USD/ton, and falling the most to 5,097 USD/ton, down 348 USD/ton.
This is a terrible decline for Robusta coffee – Vietnam’s number 1 coffee export in the world.
Similarly, Arabica coffee prices on the New York floor (USA) also had a red session. Accordingly, the price of Arabica coffee delivered in December decreased by 130 USD/ton, to 5,650 USD/ton, equivalent to a decrease of 2.26%. At longer delivery terms, Arabica coffee prices also decreased by about 2%.
Robusta coffee prices had a plummeting session on the London floor
The direct cause of the decline in coffee prices on the floor was pointed out by experts because on October 2, the European Commission (EU) announced to postpone the implementation of the anti-deforestation law (EUDR) after receiving feedback. for countries exporting affected agricultural products such as coffee, palm oil, rubber, soybeans, wooden furniture, etc.
According to the roadmap, EUDR will be applied from 2025, requiring manufacturers to prove that the above products do not originate from deforestation. This causes many batches of coffee to become unqualified for import into the EU, not only due to the impact of deforestation but also due to failure to meet procedures and documents.
If EUDR is applied according to the roadmap, the coffee supply will become short, contributing to high coffee prices. Therefore, when the EUDR postponed its application, coffee prices cooled accordingly.
Besides, the escalating war in the Middle East also makes investors want to withdraw capital from the market.
Regarding the crop season, Vietnam is currently starting to harvest with a positive forecast. Many businesses and coffee associations have surveyed growing areas and shown that thanks to the recent increase in coffee prices, gardeners focus on taking good care of them.
According to Mr. Trinh Duc Minh, Chairman of Buon Me Thuot Coffee Association (Dak Lak province), although affected by drought at the beginning of the year, coffee productivity decreased, the decrease was about 5-10%, not too serious. important. Previously, some forecasts said that Vietnam could lose 10-20% of output due to crop failure and shrinking planting area.
Coffee prices at the beginning of the season decreased
In the domestic market, coffee prices fluctuate between 110,000 – 120,000 VND/kg, down slightly compared to before but still at a high level. Compared to the beginning of the crop in October last year, the price has doubled.
